riders Rider Pricing

Basic stats

Rider counts

season class n
2025-men helpers 226
2025-men hopefuls 311
2025-men interesting 32
2025-men packfill 311
2025-men star 20
2025-men superstar 5
2025-men NA 69
2025-women helpers 71
2025-women hopefuls 126
2025-women interesting 17
2025-women packfill 129
2025-women star 3
2025-women superstar 2
2025-women NA 21

Points dist

As expected: most riders 0 or very little points, long tail

Correlation riders to UCI Points

Quite good, but Tadej Pogacar sticks out even more? ### Rider Classification

Check Rider Classification based on 2024 season worked out, quite well. let’s keep.

### 2025 Prices retrospective

And now 2025 prices bases on 2024 season

more or less as expected. But there are some jumps. Boundary effects?

(note that adjusted prices are used) This was late addition to compress price distribution for affordability and not imported for the 2025 season.

Price Calculation

2025 Prices were based on a Gompertz function with hand-selected parameters

setup gompertz function

now run on 2025 points -> for 2026 prices

some diagnostics

new price dist after adjust

cumulative proportions

Stratification

Let’s look at the total share of the pie. This is the sum of the points of all riders in each class.

We can also look at the P/E ratio, ie how many points do you get for your WFX? (mean per class)

And now in numbers:

And what is the 3rd quartile of points each rider in the class earns?

Let’s see how the 2025 season is reflected in prices

Good enough! As intended. The middle range flattens out. Maybe the lower end could be a bit steeper.

I hope that this discourages packing a team with superstars.

Generating optimal teams?

It would be nice to see how these prices affect selection of good teams.

Adjust Prices

Let’s transform the calculated prices to fit the range of pdc prices (which were priced from 1-36 (Pogacar is 46, special price, see!))

Wielerfox is 1-60, with Pogacar at 122, an even specialer price. It seems like we have about double price, so let’s scale down to half, while maintaining a minimum of 1. This shifts the lower end a little bit to the left.

Finnish!

Kirjoitetaan tulokset muistiin